The State of pump.fun
Only 0.16% of Solana pump.fun token launches ever reach a $100k market cap: 1,141 of 698,498 launches scored, and just 8 ever reached $1M.
The numbers
| Launches indexed | 699,409 since 2026-06-01 |
| Reached $50k market cap | 3,079 (0.44% of scored) |
| Reached $100k market cap | 1,141 (0.16%) |
| Reached $1M market cap | 8 (0.001%) |
| Never reached $100k | ~99.8% of launches |
| Random early-buyer hit rate (base) | 1.76% |
| Top tracked smart wallet hit rate | 76.5% on 17 picks (Wilson lower bound 61%) |
| Smart-money lift vs base | ~43x |
| Tracked smart-wallet cohort | 74 wallets, re-derived on live data |
What percent of pump.fun tokens rug or die?
Across 698,498 scored Solana pump.fun launches, roughly 99.8% never reached a $100k market cap. Only 0.16% crossed $100k and just 0.001% ever reached $1M. Most launches round-trip toward zero within hours. "Survival" here means a measurable on-chain market cap, not price performance.
Does following smart money help?
A random early buyer's pick clears the survival bar about 1.76% of the time. The wallets in the tracked cohort clear it far more often: the strongest recent wallet hit 76.5% on 17 picks (Wilson lower bound 61%), roughly a 43x lift over the base rate. The cohort of 74 wallets is re-derived on live data so it decays and refreshes over time. This is a directional edge, measured on recent windows, not a promise.
Methodology
Launches are indexed live from the pump.fun bonding-curve event stream on Solana. Market-cap outcomes use each token's recorded peak from on-chain reserves. "Hit rate" and "base rate" come from a rolling re-derivation that labels a wallet's early picks against later on-chain survival. Numbers update weekly; the page URL is permanent. Figures are observational and paper/replay only, with no live execution implied. This is research, not financial advice. Survival is not price.
Cite this report
FreedomCore Pumphouse, "The State of pump.fun" (2026-06-29). https://memes.freedomcore.io/state-of-pumpfun/